Weekly Commentary

I like to fly fish and have had the privilege of fishing some of the most amazing rivers in the world. One specific spot to angle for a really big fish is the confluence of two rivers. This spot is easy feeding for the fish but, hard for the angler due to crosscurrents, heavy water, […]

I know the title of this blog might be controversial and in some regards it may not be entirely accurate. As I wrote last week, Trump threw in his cards on China and in many respects foreign affairs experts are dubbing Trump a “paper tiger.” It’s hard to suggest Trump crushed it. Not so fast. […]

It’s hard to talk about recessions when the U.S. stock market hit record highs last week, [i][ii] however, and quite unusually, there is a recession brewing in one important industry: Freight. Cass Information Systems, a leading freight payment and logistics provider, recently reported a rather gloomy picture of freight volumes, with November shipments falling 3.3% […]

Last week was a significant week for global trade as the trade war with China took a very predictable turn with President Trump crying “uncle.” Realizing the Midwestern farmer has turned decidedly against the President when it comes to trade, he did the only thing he could do: create a soft landing. According to one […]

  Around the holidays, you might enjoy eggnog, mistletoe, or other traditions. Wall Street enjoys traditions as well.   One of the most dubious is the end-of-year tradition of making meaningless predictions. What will happen in the world of finance? Where will markets end 2020? And, of course, the age-old tradition of dower stock market […]

  We certainly hope you all enjoyed a wonderful Thanksgiving with family and friends. Perhaps like the other 165 million Americans (according to the National Retail Federation), you chose to do some shopping in what is now a 5-day shopping event. [i]     The early results of the holiday shopping season appear mixed. Traditional […]

  With the major U.S. equity market indices at or near all-time highs and valuations appearing stretched, you might be wondering what’s possible for the future of returns. Based upon where we are now with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, future equity returns appear to be muted. [i]     On a purely P/E basis, we remain […]

  Last week gave us another look into the psyche of the consumer as the two largest economies in the world both reported strong retail sales. The combination of China and the United States make up almost 40% of global GDP, as shown in the infographic below. [i]       In looking at the composition […]

  With the U.S. stock market reaching fresh highs in the last week[i], attention is turning to the large trove of cash sitting on the sidelines in money market and traditional savings accounts. As of Friday, money market assets topped $3.5 trillion, the highest level since August 2009, and net inflows are approaching $1 trillion […]

  Last week provided critical data supporting where we are in the economic cycle and earnings recovery. On Wednesday, the first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was released, showing the U.S. economy grew 1.9% year-over-year. While growth has moderated from prior quarters, we are still clipping along at a reasonable rate. [i] […]