Weekly Commentary

Last week I highlighted what I believe will be an exceptional year for U.S. equity investors. It’s worth taking another read. I certainly don’t want to be Pollyannish about what stands between us and that optimistic forecast but, as long-term investors and asset allocators we tend to look past some of the immediate stresses and […]

While it is too early to close the books on 2020, it is pretty easy to conclude that 2020 was a dark period in our history. There are likely more dark days ahead as COVID-19 spreads uncontrolled and cities and states resort to rolling lock downs in some sectors. On the other hand—from what I […]

It would be hard to contemplate the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high in the wake of a Presidential election that has a clear winner and loser. Yet, that is exactly what the S&P 500 is doing. [i] The political analysis of President Trump’s moves are hard to conceive. He might win one state—Georgia – […]

While President Trump extends the drama of the election to energize his base for his post-political career, the outcome is certain: President-elect Biden will face a divided Congress when it is all said and done. There will be two runoff Senate races in Georgia this coming January and the results from those will determine the […]

As we approach what will likely be one of the most consequential elections in a long time―perhaps met with anger, conflict, and strife―there is some good news to reflect on. First, GDP for Q3 posted a record 33.1% annualized growth rate, coming off a tragic drop of 31.4% in Q2. [i] This recovery would represent […]

In the current highly charged political environment, it is not safe to even dip your toe into the fray of electoral politics. I certainly don’t want to incite any wrath. However, it is fair to consider a critical question that must be on our minds: Have we changed? Have we changed as Americans this year […]

With the recent rise in COVID-19 cases throughout the United States, the ongoing lockdown and recent data suggesting a slowdown in jobs growth, the case is mounting for another round of fiscal support. To put this in perspective, let’s take a look at a couple of higher frequency indicators on the health of the overall […]

There’s hardly an hour that goes by without hearing someone panicking about the upcoming Presidential election and their investments. It’s not a Democrat or Republican thing; it’s a human nature thing. Our brains are not well adapted to accepting inherent risks and, in fact, we’re trained to avoid them―especially if they are near-term risks. Think […]

We just published our Q4 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. Heading into the end of 2020, our areas of focus are centered on: The U.S. Consumer and a return to pre-pandemic consumption patterns. Despite increasing infection rates, political instability, and social unrest, the U.S. consumer seems […]

With Congress and the President locked in an epic election season battle over a Supreme Court appointment, one has to wonder if there will be another round of fiscal stimulus. Let’s assume there is not and the U.S. Consumer and economy has to fend for itself. Looking at some basic data might help shape the […]