Weekly Commentary

The “V” shaped economic recovery most were predicting has hit a pocket of turbulent air. It might have even stalled. The July employment report suggested that the jobs recovery moderated from the blistering pace seen in May and June. [i] The jobs recovery, albeit muted from prior months, reflects the continued reopening of our economy. […]

The overwhelming consensus from the clients and investors I speak to on a daily basis is a fear of what the election will bring. Actually, it is a fear of the market’s reaction to the election. It is impossible to predict what will happen—and almost anything could. Four years ago, when then-candidate Trump was in […]

  I am certain most readers of this weekly commentary have heard of the new stock trading app Robinhood which allows individual investors to buy small quantities of stock in their favorite companies. It’s been all the rage with younger, less experienced investors. Some conjecture? It’s because they are “COVID bored” and, perhaps, because there […]

  Dr. Arthur Laffer, a 2020 Medal of Freedom recipient, is best known as a member of Reagan’s Economic Policy Advisory Board and creator of the Laffer Curve (full bio) Watch our CEO Tim Phillips interview Dr. Art Laffer Topics covered included: Inflation, Interest Rates, & GDPLaffer calls for low interest rates, limited inflation, and […]

  Second quarter earnings season commences this week and it will be ugly. S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings declines in excess of 44% for Q2 according to FactSet. [i] No sector or industry was safe from the pandemic-driven shutdown of our economy. Energy was the most impacted, with an expected year-over-year earnings […]

  As we release our Q3 2020 Look Ahead, l wanted to take a moment to provide a little perspective. While I can’t give proper attribution to the following statement—as I don’t know the original author—it is well grounded: “Just imagine you were born in 1900. On your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and […]

If you look at the basic American economic model, you know consumption is almost the entire ball game. [i]   It’s hard to believe that in such a partisan environment our government did something right, but it appears to me the CARES Act might be that one thing. I’m sure it’s not perfect and has […]

Part of our work as advisors is to constantly question our assumptions, biases, and beliefs. Beyond the first principals of investing that are clearly grounded in our practice, we form views around macroeconomic outcomes.   Simply stated, our current views are: Economic vitality will return in the coming year [i]   Consumption will return to […]

  On Friday, President Trump declared the U.S. economy is on a “rocket ship recovery,” implying the economy will snap right back after posting an impressive recovery in jobs on Friday. Consensus expectations were for the U.S. economy to shed another 7.5 million jobs but, astonishingly, the U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs. [i] When […]

  No one knows how the economy will recover and what sectors will make a full or partial comeback but, a lot can be learned from the China experience. Their overall economy has recovered to over 90% of capacity. [i]     When looking at some of the areas still lagging in China, it is […]