Weekly Commentary

  As we release our Q3 2020 Look Ahead, l wanted to take a moment to provide a little perspective. While I can’t give proper attribution to the following statement—as I don’t know the original author—it is well grounded: “Just imagine you were born in 1900. On your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and […]

If you look at the basic American economic model, you know consumption is almost the entire ball game. [i]   It’s hard to believe that in such a partisan environment our government did something right, but it appears to me the CARES Act might be that one thing. I’m sure it’s not perfect and has […]

Part of our work as advisors is to constantly question our assumptions, biases, and beliefs. Beyond the first principals of investing that are clearly grounded in our practice, we form views around macroeconomic outcomes.   Simply stated, our current views are: Economic vitality will return in the coming year [i]   Consumption will return to […]

  On Friday, President Trump declared the U.S. economy is on a “rocket ship recovery,” implying the economy will snap right back after posting an impressive recovery in jobs on Friday. Consensus expectations were for the U.S. economy to shed another 7.5 million jobs but, astonishingly, the U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs. [i] When […]

  No one knows how the economy will recover and what sectors will make a full or partial comeback but, a lot can be learned from the China experience. Their overall economy has recovered to over 90% of capacity. [i]     When looking at some of the areas still lagging in China, it is […]

As we continue to thaw from the worst economic freeze in the history of our country, it is easy to get caught up in the sheer magnitude of our losses. With close to 40 million jobs lost since February, it is hard to envision any reasonable way back. [i]       When we dissect […]

  Fear is a pervasive feeling that consumes our minds these days. It’s no wonder that we are experiencing fear: Unemployment is over 14% [i] Over 23 million people are currently out of work in America [ii] 40 million people are in need of basic food from SNAP (food stamps) [iii] Retail sales have fallen […]

  2020 looks to be a complete bust and investors know it. I’ve had the chance to review over half a dozen conference calls on macroeconomic outlooks and corporate earnings and the story across the globe is the same: 2020 GDP growth will be negative in most countries, except for China 2020 corporate earnings are […]

  Now that Q1 GDP has been reported with a decline of 4.8%, it is time to move on to the really bad expectations. GDP for Q2 is anticipated to come in at -37.9% making the recession official. Of course, we won’t see this data until mid-July after the quarter ends but, we all know […]

It may be premature to think about inflation or deflation. However, it is critical that we look around the corner to support what we do today. Remember, as an investor you only own future cashflows, not past ones. I can’t tell you how many times during the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2009) experts predicted runaway inflation. […]