Weekly Commentary

Risk is such an uncertain concept. Most view it as an emotional event— as evidenced by recent outcomes with the current coronavirus pandemic. How can anyone contemplate the risk of something they have never experienced?   We tend to amplify the worst case outcome, even if it has very low odds. Lacking certainty in the […]

  The last week was as anticipated…volatile. (see our Special Panic Edition blog here). We had days that were up over 1,000 points and days that were down more than 900 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. [i] To most investors, this would look like erratic, emotional behavior by investors—and perhaps there is some […]

When I wrote the post, “And Now for the Bad News” on February 24th, I was anticipating some discounting by investors to earnings adjustments and dire macro-economic news related to the Coronavirus outbreak. Candidly, I didn’t expect to have the worst week for equities since the Great Financial Crisis and the quickest 10%+ drop in […]

  The Coronavirus has dominated the news cycle for weeks and it is not surprising the hysteria has been rampant. The truth is the virus is on the decline in mainland China. In the graphic below, you can see the number of patients leaving the hospital growing and declines in severe cases and confirmed cases. […]

  As we enter the fourth week of combatting the coronavirus, global perceptions about the impact are starting to take shape. Let’s start with the latest on the spread of the virus from the World Health Organization (WHO). [i]   Despite having spread across the globe, the exposure within each country is incredibly small especially […]

  This is an unusual period for investors as we digest the past, while trying to consume the current and future news. First, the past news as it relates to corporate earnings is nothing short of outstanding relative to expectations. Fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings are now expected to grow 0.7% year-over-year compared to expectations […]

  The world’s second largest stock market will have been open and closed by the time you read this post. The China A-Share market has a total market capitalization of approximately $8.4 trillion. It is the second largest market by most measures in the world. [i] The Chinese stock market was down almost 9% overnight, […]

  China has been plagued with what appears to be a fast spreading virus with an epicenter in the city of Wuhan. The loss of any life is tragic at any scale, let alone as the result of a virus like the current one being closely monitored in China. While this post might be viewed […]

  Fourth quarter earnings season just began and with any luck, the year-long earnings recession will be coming to an end. [i] If expectations are the guide, Q4 earnings should decline around 2.1% year-over-year, and estimates have been revised downward over the last several weeks. [ii] Rolling forward, each quarter of 2020 earnings are expected […]

Last week, we presented our Q1 2020 Look Ahead (link here) that was predominantly focused on the U.S. markets. Over the last 12 months we at Phillips and Company have made a concerted effort to explore China and its domestic stock market for equity returns. It’s a straightforward narrative: U.S.-based investors of almost all types […]