Weekly Commentary

With the recent rise in COVID-19 cases throughout the United States, the ongoing lockdown and recent data suggesting a slowdown in jobs growth, the case is mounting for another round of fiscal support. To put this in perspective, let’s take a look at a couple of higher frequency indicators on the health of the overall […]

There’s hardly an hour that goes by without hearing someone panicking about the upcoming Presidential election and their investments. It’s not a Democrat or Republican thing; it’s a human nature thing. Our brains are not well adapted to accepting inherent risks and, in fact, we’re trained to avoid them―especially if they are near-term risks. Think […]

We just published our Q4 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. Heading into the end of 2020, our areas of focus are centered on: The U.S. Consumer and a return to pre-pandemic consumption patterns. Despite increasing infection rates, political instability, and social unrest, the U.S. consumer seems […]

With Congress and the President locked in an epic election season battle over a Supreme Court appointment, one has to wonder if there will be another round of fiscal stimulus. Let’s assume there is not and the U.S. Consumer and economy has to fend for itself. Looking at some basic data might help shape the […]

Are stocks overvalued? By the conventional wisdom, the answer is a resounding Yes! When you look at various valuation metrics, stocks look overvalued on a 5-year and 10-year basis. [i] Before I just wrap this post up and conclude equities are overvalued, it is important to look at a few other factors before we all […]

  The next couple of weeks will be seminal moments for the technology war waged by President Trump as the looming deadline for TikTok – the Chinese-owned social media app – to partner with an American company in order to continue U.S. operations comes on September 20th. This morning, it was reported that Oracle had […]

  With the NASDAQ down about 10% from the highs and other indexes off their respective highs it’s finally time to take a breath and reset. [i] From a macroeconomic perspective, we are still on the recovery path. Just consider the following indicators: Jobs continue to recover, with another 1 million plus jobs added in […]

I’m sure most didn’t look at Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement as it relates to the Federal Reserve’s modification to their long-standing inflation target policy last week. He was addressing the dual mandate Congress gave the Fed to create price stability and full employment. Before I get to the salient points, it is critical to know […]

  When we’ve talked about a return to normal, one of the last things we would think of is a return to all-time highs on the S&P 500. But, that is exactly what occurred last week, 148 days after bottoming, the S&P 500 broke above its all-time high on August 18th! [i] This has most […]

  Critical COVID-19 legislation is on hold as both sides of the aisle bicker over who gets what in the next round of stimulus, with the two sides far apart on the critical question of state funding. [i] Democrats want over $1 trillion in the next round of COVID-19 stimulus for states while Republicans want […]