Weekly Commentary

What should be an all-consuming week of rich data will likely be hijacked by another bout of pandemonium around the drama with GameStop and the Reddit message board. The week ahead is poised to be full of macro economic releases that could provide critical direction on the fragile state of our economy. Just look at […]

With so much liquidity floating within our economy, we should expect the current housing boom to continue. First, there is simply not enough supply in the current marketplace to meet expected demand. [i] New home listings are down 10% from last year and pending sales are up an astonishing 32%. [ii] The collision course of […]

Fourth quarter earnings season is beginning to ramp up, with consensus expecting S&P 500 companies to report a year-over-year earnings decline of -6.8% per FactSet. [i] While this would mark the fourth-largest decline since Q3 2009, we are entering a period of very easy year-over-year growth comparisons and there are a couple of kickers that […]

An economic or market blog is almost hard to scribe after the events that transpired last week in our nation’s capital. While market forces looked past the turmoil on Wednesday and, overall, rallied on hope of more fiscal stimulus; we would be remiss to not address some of the potential implications. [i] Sadly, we laid […]

We just published our Q1 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. Consumption & Investment Rocket FuelAs we’ve written here before, an economic recovery is going to be driven by consumption and the implementation of the COVID-19 vaccine. Consumer caution was a major theme in 2020 as […]

It is not so prophetic to suggest you’ve been paid your returns for 2021. It is entirely possible that what you’ve gained in 2020 is a 100% deposit on what you might get in 2021, at least from a U.S. equity perspective. [i] This view, however, is certainly not the consensus. In fact, it is […]

As we swiftly approach 2021, it is becoming abundantly clear where some of the greatest opportunity might exist within the broad spectrum of equity investing. Emerging markets appear to be the clear favorite from a valuation perspective. [i] Relative to Developed Markets, Emerging Markets look particularly inviting. Using the cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio and drilling down […]

Last week, I hosted Morgan Housel, award winning financial writer, for a Zoom meeting to discuss his new book The Psychology of Money.  You can watch the replay here! Hiring a financial storyteller might seem counter-intuitive compared to hiring a market prognosticator or economist. However, I think about the famous lefty pitcher Sandy Koufax—Most don’t […]

While we’ve been preoccupied with an explosion of COVID-19 cases and the soap opera end of the Trump Presidency, China advances. On November 15th, China formed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, the largest trade bloc in history. [i] It represents 15 countries, 30% of World GDP, 27% of global merchandise trade by reducing […]

Last week I highlighted what I believe will be an exceptional year for U.S. equity investors. It’s worth taking another read. I certainly don’t want to be Pollyannish about what stands between us and that optimistic forecast but, as long-term investors and asset allocators we tend to look past some of the immediate stresses and […]