Weekly Commentary

  We certainly hope you all enjoyed a wonderful Thanksgiving with family and friends. Perhaps like the other 165 million Americans (according to the National Retail Federation), you chose to do some shopping in what is now a 5-day shopping event. [i]     The early results of the holiday shopping season appear mixed. Traditional […]

  With the major U.S. equity market indices at or near all-time highs and valuations appearing stretched, you might be wondering what’s possible for the future of returns. Based upon where we are now with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, future equity returns appear to be muted. [i]     On a purely P/E basis, we remain […]

  Last week gave us another look into the psyche of the consumer as the two largest economies in the world both reported strong retail sales. The combination of China and the United States make up almost 40% of global GDP, as shown in the infographic below. [i]       In looking at the composition […]

  With the U.S. stock market reaching fresh highs in the last week[i], attention is turning to the large trove of cash sitting on the sidelines in money market and traditional savings accounts. As of Friday, money market assets topped $3.5 trillion, the highest level since August 2009, and net inflows are approaching $1 trillion […]

  Last week provided critical data supporting where we are in the economic cycle and earnings recovery. On Wednesday, the first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was released, showing the U.S. economy grew 1.9% year-over-year. While growth has moderated from prior quarters, we are still clipping along at a reasonable rate. [i] […]

With progress being made on Phase 1 of Trump’s trade war with China is there a chance they could be at a cyclical low? Both Fidelity and Moody’s believe China has entered, or is about to enter, a recession. [i] [ii]     While recessions are traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP […]

There are a lot of headlines that can and are fueling the pessimist within all of us. That creeping, silent voice in our head that says, “danger ahead.” The fascinating thing about pessimism is it can act as a compelling emotion by helping us act with caution. Take the prevailing and reoccurring theme I hear […]

Just about everyone is asking the same question: How long can this economic expansion last? One pf the bigger inquisitions is coming from President Trump, and, while he may not be asking directly, he is certainly asking indirectly. Just look at his immediate statement after he cut the recent “Phase 1” trade deal with China […]

  With all of the noise and turmoil in the third quarter, the S&P 500 ended with a small 1.2% gain. Between trade wars, oil disruptions, impeachment proceedings, and weakening domestic manufacturing data, it’s a wonder we didn’t experience more of a drawdown than 6.1% this quarter. [i]     While there is no doubt U.S. […]

  The long-awaited throwdown of partisan politics, accountability, or retribution – depending on your point of view – has started. I’d dare not venture into the partisan outcomes, but rather focus our attention on the possible economic and market implications of this event.  There have been four prior impeachment referrals in the history of the […]