Weekly Commentary

  President Trump’s remarks concerning his ongoing trade war with China took on epic proportions last week as he simultaneously attacked the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the President of China Xi Jinping on Friday. [i]     Calling Chairman Xi an “enemy” while wanting trade concessions out of him only fuels more Chinese […]

  Last week in our blog “What Else Can Go Wrong,” we accurately predicted several outcomes that would increase equity market volatility.  The S&P 500 did, in fact, post another quarter without any earnings growth, as corporate America officially enters an earnings recession. [xi] Simultaneous to that, both Walmart and Alibaba posted impressive year-over-year growth […]

  The old adage of Murphy’s law states, “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” This probably applies to our current season of worry. Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi sums it up well with the following chart. [i]     It’s not surprising to see the equity markets flutter in weakness, especially as Q2 […]

  While we believed a 50 basis-point rate cut was the best course of action, the Federal Reserve ended up cutting rates by the minimal 25 basis points. On July 31, the Fed said:  “In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided […]

   The U.S. economy expanded by 2.2% in Q2, the slowest pace since Trump announced his global war on trade. [i]     When you break down the four component parts of the U.S. economy, the strengths and weaknesses come into clear focus. [ii]     When you break down the four component parts of the […]

  We’ve written in the past on our view that President Trump is waging a trade war to maximize his influence on the Federal Reserve. Though we believe he is prosecuting a case against China, the uncertainty he is creating in global GDP growth, in our opinion, is causing the Fed to consider cutting interest […]

 A lot transpired last week as it relates to capital markets and the economy.  Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell almost assured market participants an interest rate cut is inevitable and likely to occur in July.  Chairman Powell made the following statements in his congressional testimony; “There is a risk that weak inflation will be even […]

  As the third-quarter of 2019 begins, we hope you have a chance to review our Q3 2019 Look Ahead.  A link to the PDF presentation can be found here with a narrated version here. Friday released an amazing jobs report that might assuage investor anxiety around a slowing economy. [i]     But not so fast! As […]

  The Trump administration looks to be playing its cards perfectly when it comes to its broader objectives and goals.  The administration announced it would be resuming trade discussions with China, without any specificity on when the trade discussions will conclude.  Trump suggested he would be patient. It’s critical to understand that, short of a […]

  Last week, our post analyzed the possibility that the Federal Reserve would make adjustments to its language suggesting that patience is still required when discussing cutting interest rates, due to weakening economic data.  [i] As predicted, the Fed did exactly that, removing the language regarding its previously more patient tone. Comparing the Federal Reserve’s […]