Weekly Commentary

  This is an unusual period for investors as we digest the past, while trying to consume the current and future news. First, the past news as it relates to corporate earnings is nothing short of outstanding relative to expectations. Fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings are now expected to grow 0.7% year-over-year compared to expectations […]

  The world’s second largest stock market will have been open and closed by the time you read this post. The China A-Share market has a total market capitalization of approximately $8.4 trillion. It is the second largest market by most measures in the world. [i] The Chinese stock market was down almost 9% overnight, […]

  China has been plagued with what appears to be a fast spreading virus with an epicenter in the city of Wuhan. The loss of any life is tragic at any scale, let alone as the result of a virus like the current one being closely monitored in China. While this post might be viewed […]

  Fourth quarter earnings season just began and with any luck, the year-long earnings recession will be coming to an end. [i] If expectations are the guide, Q4 earnings should decline around 2.1% year-over-year, and estimates have been revised downward over the last several weeks. [ii] Rolling forward, each quarter of 2020 earnings are expected […]

Last week, we presented our Q1 2020 Look Ahead (link here) that was predominantly focused on the U.S. markets. Over the last 12 months we at Phillips and Company have made a concerted effort to explore China and its domestic stock market for equity returns. It’s a straightforward narrative: U.S.-based investors of almost all types […]

I like to fly fish and have had the privilege of fishing some of the most amazing rivers in the world. One specific spot to angle for a really big fish is the confluence of two rivers. This spot is easy feeding for the fish but, hard for the angler due to crosscurrents, heavy water, […]

I know the title of this blog might be controversial and in some regards it may not be entirely accurate. As I wrote last week, Trump threw in his cards on China and in many respects foreign affairs experts are dubbing Trump a “paper tiger.” It’s hard to suggest Trump crushed it. Not so fast. […]

It’s hard to talk about recessions when the U.S. stock market hit record highs last week, [i][ii] however, and quite unusually, there is a recession brewing in one important industry: Freight. Cass Information Systems, a leading freight payment and logistics provider, recently reported a rather gloomy picture of freight volumes, with November shipments falling 3.3% […]

Last week was a significant week for global trade as the trade war with China took a very predictable turn with President Trump crying “uncle.” Realizing the Midwestern farmer has turned decidedly against the President when it comes to trade, he did the only thing he could do: create a soft landing. According to one […]

  Around the holidays, you might enjoy eggnog, mistletoe, or other traditions. Wall Street enjoys traditions as well.   One of the most dubious is the end-of-year tradition of making meaningless predictions. What will happen in the world of finance? Where will markets end 2020? And, of course, the age-old tradition of dower stock market […]