Weekly Commentary

With progress being made on Phase 1 of Trump’s trade war with China is there a chance they could be at a cyclical low? Both Fidelity and Moody’s believe China has entered, or is about to enter, a recession. [i] [ii]     While recessions are traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP […]

There are a lot of headlines that can and are fueling the pessimist within all of us. That creeping, silent voice in our head that says, “danger ahead.” The fascinating thing about pessimism is it can act as a compelling emotion by helping us act with caution. Take the prevailing and reoccurring theme I hear […]

Just about everyone is asking the same question: How long can this economic expansion last? One pf the bigger inquisitions is coming from President Trump, and, while he may not be asking directly, he is certainly asking indirectly. Just look at his immediate statement after he cut the recent “Phase 1” trade deal with China […]

  With all of the noise and turmoil in the third quarter, the S&P 500 ended with a small 1.2% gain. Between trade wars, oil disruptions, impeachment proceedings, and weakening domestic manufacturing data, it’s a wonder we didn’t experience more of a drawdown than 6.1% this quarter. [i]     While there is no doubt U.S. […]

  The long-awaited throwdown of partisan politics, accountability, or retribution – depending on your point of view – has started. I’d dare not venture into the partisan outcomes, but rather focus our attention on the possible economic and market implications of this event.  There have been four prior impeachment referrals in the history of the […]

  Ultimately, earnings growth matters. After all, investors only own the future. When you buy a stock, you’re purchasing a fractional share of future cash flow streams that the company generates from earnings and dividends. You’ve bought it at its current earnings, but have likely paid a higher valuation in anticipation of future growth in […]

Despite the shock and sharp rally in oil prices due to the Saudi Arabian oil facility attack, there is some underlying good news to consider at this stage of the cycle. [i] The majority of economic releases last week showed improvement from the previous period or beat forecasts. Consumer credit expanded by $23.3 billion in […]

  Regardless of what economic, geopolitical, corporate, Trump tweet, or market-moving event occurs, all equity investors need to be prepared for risk. Risk is the underlying ingredient that creates excess returns over “risk-free” assets like government bonds. Here’s a look at the current risk premium over various asset classes. [i]     Risk will show […]

  For the first time since the middle of 2008 Financial Crisis, the S&P 500 Dividend Yield is greater than the yield on 5-, 10-, and 30-year treasuries. [i]     Simply put, stocks are paying more income than bonds which is pretty rare. Historically, bonds tend to pay more income than stocks while offering […]

  President Trump’s remarks concerning his ongoing trade war with China took on epic proportions last week as he simultaneously attacked the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the President of China Xi Jinping on Friday. [i]     Calling Chairman Xi an “enemy” while wanting trade concessions out of him only fuels more Chinese […]