Weekly Commentary

  In the midst of this historically prolonged period of economic growth, there is little question the U.S economy has hit a few speed bumps on its road to expansion. For investors, Friday’s jobs report demonstrated a significant indication of an economic slowdown.  The report estimated the U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in April, […]

  Last week’s commentary, which focused on regular recession cycles and the role credit plays in consumption/economic stimulation, can be viewed here. Over the past few weeks, the United States has witnessed a sharp deterioration in trade negotiations, adding further tension to already stressed global trade relations. This has created a sharp increase in market volatility […]

  Last week’s commentary focused on corporate borrowing and its relationships to the financial crisis, which can be viewed here. As history has repeatedly demonstrated, run-of-the-mill recessions are simply a reflection of a normal business cycle. These minor recessions serve as a natural correction to speculation, which allows the market to circumvent a major recession or […]

  So much of investor focus has been on the dysfunctional trade negotiations between the United States and China.  This has caused investors to miss some critical pieces of data from our economy.  Before I get to what that data may be, allow me to remind you of the simple fact that markets correct on […]

  President Trump stepped up the pressure on China to resolve the current trade war by unexpectedly increasing tariffs on China’s exports to the United States. According to a tweet from President Trump, tariffs have increased to 25 percent on $250 billion worth of Chinese exports. [i]     It’s no secret that the U.S. […]

  Investors have seen the Federal Reserve come full circle over the past five months.  The Fed went from a “hawkish” rhetoric and raising interest rates to a “dovish” rhetoric putting further interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future. [i]     Bond investors took it one step further by hammering short-term interest rates, which […]

  Last week the S&P 500 added a new notch to its belt.  For the first time since September 2018, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high.  [i]   This came on the back of the U.S. posting its best first quarter GDP since 2016.  According to the advance estimate of the United […]

    With just a few weeks’ worth of S&P 500 earnings reports released for Q1 2019, the earnings recession we have been talking about for many weeks is beginning to take shape. So far with 15 percent of companies reporting their Q1 2019 earnings, FactSet is anticipating a decline of -3.9 percent versus the […]

  To celebrate Earth Day almost 40 years ago, Walt Kelly wrote, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”  The essence of his work was to remind Americans we were all responsible for hurting the environment. [i] Oddly enough, we had a similar reminder during last week’s testimony on the Hill.  CEOs from seven […]

  After completing the first full trading week of the second quarter, the market continues to rocket toward the all-time highs it reached last September.  With the market’s exuberance, we’d like to remind investors of the potential clouds headed our way, as we present you with our Q2 2019 Look Ahead. For our PDF presentation […]