Weekly Commentary

This week we will hear the scholars and PhDs of the Federal Reserve pontificate at their annual retreat in Jackson Hole. The topic will likely center around Federal Reserve independence and the ruling elite. What I hope they talk about is who counts in a crisis. The U.S. economy looks strong at the surface level. […]

The weak jobs numbers put a shadow on what could be an economy still on decent footing.  The biggest growth is coming from the market’s leaders and the wealthiest households — and that concentration, while worth watching, may be more of a strength than a weakness right now. With strong corporate earnings, healthy balance sheets, […]

As expected, last week’s data dump told us a great deal about the Trump economy. On the one hand, the U.S. economy grew at a solid 3% pace in Q2. Most of that growth was driven by a significant adjustment to trade, which added considerable momentum. Notably, the consumer’s contribution was smaller. While overall planned […]

This week isn’t just busy—it’s defining. From the Federal Reserve’s rate decision to a crush of earnings from the most influential names in the S&P 500, markets are heading into what could be the most consequential stretch of the summer. With economic data, earnings, and policy colliding, the signals we get could set the tone […]

What productivity, inflation, and the consumer are telling investors right now. It’s easy to stay skeptical in a noisy world. But sometimes, the most bullish signals are the quietest. Zoom out, and a compelling picture emerges: recession fears are retreating, productivity is surging, inflation is stabilizing, and consumers are spending—not just surviving. Are We in […]

Just as equity markets hit all time highs after recovering from the tariff threats in April, we have tariff threats 2.0. This time it’s a 30% tariff on the European Union and Mexico, two of the countries we have large trade deficits with. Oddly enough, the U.S. has been collecting custom duties to the tune […]

We wrapped up one of the most consequential periods for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 recovered all its losses in the quarter and then some, rising 30% from the April 7th lows.1 In fact, it’s one of the most rapid recoveries since 1950, with a 1.6 month bear market, no recession, and only 2.6 months to […]

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high coming off a near bear market drawdown of 18.9% just a few months ago. In fact, it happened in record time.1 Now you might be thinking, “is the other shoe about to drop?”  Well, historically these rapid recoveries have some legs to them. According to our friends at […]

Geopolitical events took a turn for the worse over the weekend with the US bombing of Iran nuclear enrichment facilities. It’s hard to say what the ramifications and consequences of another Middle East conflict will be for the United States. Equity markets will adversely react to any signs this conflict will be prolonged and/or destabilizing […]

The recent conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has been on the radar for a long time but until now was always a low probability event. No longer. The missile strikes bring a host of new geopolitical risks beyond tariffs.1  Israel struck key Iranian infrastructure that will certainly damage the country’s energy […]