Weekly Commentary

This week, all eyes are on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, with the January 2025 data set to drop on Friday, February 28th. As of today, economists and market watchers are buzzing with expectations – and for good reason. Inflation trends shape Fed policy, stock valuations, bond yields, […]

I often have to catch myself when things look a little grey on the macro picture. We’ve had a spate of economic releases and earnings expectations that suggest maybe things are slowing, or at least not as rosy as we would like. Retail sales were weaker than anticipated in January, with almost every sector showing […]

As we enter another busy week of economic brinkmanship with tariffs, tax proposals, and spending cuts, it might be time to frame the mathematical challenge. The Federal Government is spending about $1.9 trillion more than they take in. 1 At 6.1% of GDP, this deficit stands at an all-time record high – nearly double the […]

This weekend, President Trump announced broad-reaching tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. The measures include a 25% tariff on almost all goods from Canada (excluding energy resources) and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Canada has already announced retaliatory measures, and Mexico indicated they will make an announcement soon. Here’s […]

Despite this morning’s market turbulence sparked by Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low-cost AI model challenging tech valuations, the latest wave of Q4 earnings reports has injected fresh optimism into market sentiment, particularly following upbeat results from major financial institutions in the first two weeks of reporting. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported at this […]

Standing at the threshold of one of the most anticipated periods on the financial calendar – corporate earnings season – we find ourselves getting back to what matters most for equity markets. This time of the year, companies from various sectors open their books, unveiling their financial performance for the quarter. It is a moment […]

Bond yields have been rising at an alarming rate recently, especially considering the Federal Reserve has been cutting short-term interest rates. 1 The Fed Funds rate is 100 bps lower, yet the 10-year Treasury yield is just over 100 bps higher. That’s certainly not what was expected when the Fed started their rate cutting cycle. […]

Wall Street’s annual tradition of “precise inaccuracy” is upon us again, offering a perfect moment to reflect on its forecasting ability. At the end of 2023, they projected a mere 1.22% gain for the S&P 500 in 2024, underestimating actual performance by over 1,800%, while their GDP growth forecast undershot reality by 138%. For 2025, […]

“To me the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff…” – Donald Trump, October, 2024 1 As we enter an era of America First trade and economic policies, it raises the question: can tariffs be beautiful? Note, this is an explanation and not a rationalization. Here is how tariffs work. Typically, all roads lead […]

It’s been a remarkable year for equity investors when you consider the S&P 500 has hit an all-time high 56 times so far in 2024. 1 It’s not the best “all-time high” year but it’s near the best in the last 100 years. 2 Around this time of year, I always look back at how […]