Weekly Commentary

Higher Tariffs, More Jobs, Lower Prices! The recent jobs report reflects continuing strength in the overall economy.  The US added 139,000 jobs in May. While cooling is still relatively strong, with a 6-month average of 157,000 jobs that’s more than enough to absorb new entrants to the jobs market.  There is still no sign of […]

For weeks, we’ve heard whispers of a slowing economy, and rightly so. But when we dig into the latest economic reports, a more nuanced picture emerges for the American consumer: one of caution, yes, but certainly not collapse. In fact, it’s a story underpinned by continued wage growth and, more importantly, a significant rise in […]

Bond yields are once again on the rise—a trend that spells trouble for the U.S. consumer. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed to 4.51%, pushing 30-year mortgage rates back above 7%. This upward movement in rates is particularly damaging for the housing market, where affordability is already stretched.1 Bond Investors appear to be reacting […]

We are only about 3% below the all-time highs on the S&P 500. Who could have imagined we would be back at these levels so quickly with all that is going on?1 You and I did! That’s right, the average investor held their resolve and stayed invested while the so-called Wall Street “experts” or institutional […]

We finally had our first tariff off-ramp. Last week, the Trump administration announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom. It reflected deep economic alignment, strategic trust, and a shared framework of market capitalism. It was also because the trade difference between the two countries is so minuscule it could hardly matter. 1 Many have asked […]

Over the last nine consecutive days, the S&P 500 has recovered all its losses since the April 2nd launch of the Trump trade war. This is the longest S&P 500 winning streak in the last 20 years.1 The historic rally occurred even considering a mix of economic headlines. The US economy contracted 0.3% in Q1 […]

The recent drumbeat for a US recession is mounting and will dominate the news cycle this week. With US economic growth (GDP) releasing on Wednesday, economists will likely increase their probabilities for a recession. According to Bloomberg, forecasters now see a 45% chance of a recession up from a 30% chance in April.1 The Federal […]

The US Consumer once again contradicted their self-reported dour mood and continued to spend in March. Retail sales were up 4.6% year over year. Some of this was a pull forward in consumption driven by the tariffs on autos, although almost every segment saw increases in consumption.1 Consumers are saying they’re concerned but clearly keep […]

Consumer confidence took another perilous drop in last week’s Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan.  This decline represents a multi-month drop in the consumer’s attitude.  In fact, consumer sentiment has been down over 30% since December 2024 and is hitting historic lows, almost certainly driven by trade war/tariff uncertainty and the threat of […]

  It certainly looks like that will be the case with the current Trump tariffs.  The formula used was an oddity and caught many off guard.  The division by two is driven by the Administration wanting to be “reasonable” according to President Trump.  In any case, this formula was much more about past trade injustices […]