Weekly Commentary

Adding nearly 1 million jobs in the latest jobs report (including revisions from the prior month) would suggest we are fast on our way to a full recovery. [i] Under normal circumstances, investors would be quick to conclude rising rates are on the horizon to stem fast-approaching inflation– especially if you consider the historic amounts […]

We just published our Q2 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. Consumer Strength – Close to LiftoffThe coming quarter will be a period of rapid reopening, with COVID-19 vaccine availability occurring much faster than anticipated. By mid-April, 90% of all adults in the United States will […]

Since February 2020, China has been leading the way in the recovery from COVID-19 and economic re-opening. New confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Mainland China have been near zero since the beginning of February. [i] China has achieved a post-pandemic recovery in most areas, including manufacturing and fixed asset investment (capital spending). [ii] [iii] A […]

The recent high-level talks in Alaska between Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and their Chinese counterparts are being viewed as a continuation of the Trump-era rhetoric. Certainly, from the public statements, it would appear to be the case. The U.S. side lectured China on the handling of Hong Kong, the […]

The odds of seeing a triple play in baseball are something like 1 in 325. It’s an incredibly rare event—on par with passing important legislation in Congress. [i] It is remarkable the U.S. has completed what I consider the unlikely economic triple play: passing important fiscal policy legislation, extremely accommodative monetary policy, and individual spending […]

In an effort to put a label on what is going on with credit markets, U.S. investors are in a quandary. The yield curve has steepened over the last 45 days. [i] The U.S. 7-year Treasury auction had an anemic showing on February 25th, with only 2 buyers for every dollar offered. That spiked the […]

There is an inflection point, of sorts, occurring in U.S. capital markets these days. It is abundantly clear that investors are facing a choice with respect to interest rates and equity returns. We anticipated much of this when we published our Q1 2021 Look Ahead. A period of time where interest rates might be rising […]

With equity markets hitting all-time highs, bitcoin touching all-time highs, and COVID-19 cases collapsing, the world would seem near perfect for investors. [i] [ii] [iii] Specifically, retail sales are clearly heating up in January and across several segments. It would appear the Trump stimulus is again hitting the mark precisely. [iv] Could it be possible […]

The most frequently asked question right now is, “Are we in a bubble?” The simple answer is, “I can’t tell.” It’s an entirely natural question and answers will vary based upon the strategy and motivations of the person you’re asking. [i] Here is what we know: Valuations are stretched across a variety of metrics. Extended […]

The most recent jobs report suggests the economic recovery is softening. Of course, that seems obvious since we have been in stuck in another “lockdown” phase. Most service sector jobs are in a deep freeze― especially in the travel, leisure, and hospitality industries. In total, we only added 49,000 jobs in January and that certainly […]