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The recent drumbeat for a US recession is mounting and will dominate the news cycle this week. With US economic growth (GDP) releasing on Wednesday, economists will likely increase their probabilities for a recession. According to Bloomberg, forecasters now see a 45%… More >>

The US Consumer once again contradicted their self-reported dour mood and continued to spend in March. Retail sales were up 4.6% year over year. Some of this was a pull forward in consumption driven by the tariffs on autos, although almost every segment saw increases in… More >>

Consumer confidence took another perilous drop in last week’s Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan.  This decline represents a multi-month drop in the consumer's attitude.  In fact, consumer sentiment has been down over 30% since December 2024 and is… More >>

  It certainly looks like that will be the case with the current Trump tariffs.  The formula used was an oddity and caught many off guard.  The division by two is driven by the Administration wanting to be “reasonable” according to President Trump.  In any case,… More >>

As we step into Q2 2025, the economic landscape is shaped by a myriad of factors. Our latest Q2 2025 Look Ahead report dives deep into the nuanced interplay between consumer sentiment, policy uncertainty, and the potential for interest rate cuts.  1.  Consumer Sentiment vs.… More >>

Sentiment has turned decidedly sour. The recent survey on consumer attitudes by the University of Michigan points to this marked decline.1 Inflation concerns, along with the headline uncertainty around tariffs, are to blame. Tariffs are a form of sales tax and that has… More >>

It’s hard to keep track of the multiple narratives driving our economy and equity markets right now. Let me see if I can reduce the noise and clarify what should be the main focal points. First, the most recent survey from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment… More >>

The wall of worry investors are facing continues to expand, and as we wrote last week, the policy volatility is not alleviating any tension.  However, much of the worry is still noise.  For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow forecast suggests we are in a recession in Q1. … More >>

As discussed in last week’s post, the Friday charts on inflation told us a lot about the direction of interest rates and the economy. Fortunately, according to the Federal Reserve’s favored indicator (PCE), inflation is back to trending favorably. 1 Across almost all… More >>

This week, all eyes are on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, with the January 2025 data set to drop on Friday, February 28th. As of today, economists and market watchers are buzzing with expectations – and… More >>