Recent Posts

  1. September 13, 2021

    U.S. GDP is on a trajectory that suggests Q3 growth will come in significantly lower rate than when we started the quarter. Going from an expected 6.1% growth rate to 3.7% is a 40% reduction—which is no small matter. [i] The component parts of GDP have been weakening… More >>

  2. September 7, 2021

    The August jobs report was an unmitigated disappointment relative to expectations. The U.S. economy added 235k jobs in August—well below the consensus estimate of 733k jobs. It’s also the lowest number of jobs being added in a month since January when the U.S economy… More >>

  3. August 30, 2021

        Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous seem to be the essence of our current times. Our last blog suggested President Biden’s $3.5 trillion domestic agenda could be in jeopardy if volatility in Afghanistan persisted. After the tragic deaths of 13 brave young… More >>

  4. August 23, 2021

    We had a tough week in America and it’s critical we take a look at as much of it as possible. On the economic front, we are now seeing some headline erosion in growth. On a headline basis, July retail sales declined 1.1% month-over-month. [i] Beyond the headline… More >>

  5. August 16, 2021

    When it comes to investments, most everything is expensive these days. You name the asset class, and it’s likely trading at or near an all-time high: • U.S. Equities• Home prices• Commodities• U.S. Treasuries With valuations at extreme highs, forward-looking returns look… More >>

  6. August 9, 2021

    The July jobs report came out on Friday and showed the U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs during the month. In total, the economy has added back 16.7 million jobs since the start of the pandemic. [i] While we are still 5.7 million jobs below February 2020 levels, we are… More >>

  7. August 2, 2021

    When it comes to all things—economic or financial—almost everything looks like a mixed bag. U.S. GDP growth came in at 6.5%. Under any other circumstance, 6.5% would be incredible. Unfortunately, the consensus expectation was for around 8.5% growth. U.S. GDP finally… More >>

  8. July 26, 2021

    As we face another media-driven week that will focus on the expanding delta variant of the COVID-19 virus, it is critical we do not apply old thinking to today’s circumstances. The virus is on another surge, with new cases back to levels we have not seen since April/May.… More >>

  9. July 19, 2021

    The latest reading on inflation once again pointed to higher prices for consumers. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was up 5.4% in June – the largest increase since August 2008. [i] This was on top of a May jump of 5% in consumer prices. Our view is that… More >>

  10. July 12, 2021

    If you review our Q3 Look Ahead, our declaration that “The Consumer is in Control” is clearly playing out beyond our forecast. Recent data on consumer credit suggests the U.S. Consumer is looking pretty perky. [i] Consumers expanded their use of credit by a whopping… More >>

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