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This week should bring another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as the futures markets are indicating. 1 Yet headline inflation has ticked up a bit after several months of moderation. 2 The recent CPI data suggests inflation is stalling above the Fed’s 2%… More >>

Last week’s jobs report presented new evidence that the U.S. labor market continues its delicate balancing act toward a soft landing. While the jobs report’s headline metric of nonfarm payrolls posted a 277,000 advance in November, another gauge of household employment… More >>

It's intuitively hard to invest when valuations on stocks are at record highs. Under normal circumstances, you would think that investments made at these levels would produce negative returns. According to J.P. Morgan, it’s quite the opposite. Historically, investing at… More >>

It might surprise many of you to know I ran for U.S. Congress once on a platform made up of a Wasteful Spending Commission. That was 20 years ago, and at that time voters didn’t care about $1.5 million to study dog fighting or the $500,000 Congress gave to Alaska Airlines… More >>

While we have been focused on the U.S. Presidential election, something is amiss with interest rates. The Federal Reserve has been cutting the Fed Funds rate, but treasury rates are still rising both on the 2-year and 10-year. 1 What’s going on? For one, inflation… More >>

The recent U.S. election is being analyzed a thousand ways. Whatever way you see it, Americans voted for a change, and they were not alone. This year marked the first time that voters worldwide collectively voted for change. 1 Developed economies around the world faced… More >>

We’re just a day away from electing a President, and the headline economy is performing very well. The U.S. economy expanded in Q3, with 2.8% GDP growth and consumer spending constituting 3.7% of that growth. This represents the highest consumer growth rate since Q1 2023.… More >>

  Last week’s post focused on earnings, but I included a small teaser on tax policy using the chart below. It generated some interest, so perhaps it's time to take a macro look at the implications of both the Harris and Trump tax policies. 1     According to the Tax… More >>

In the coming weeks, the amount of political noise will be all-consuming. I’m sure it will be sucking all of the oxygen out of the earnings season which will be in full swing by the November election. The various tax proposals will be mind-boggling, with daily… More >>

The S&P 500 touched another record high last week, marking the 45th time it has set a record this year. Last week’s blog covered the topic of extreme pessimism. Really smart people can be seduced into pessimistic thinking even when the only logical reaction should be… More >>