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As expected, last week’s data dump told us a great deal about the Trump economy. On the one hand, the U.S. economy grew at a solid 3% pace in Q2. Most of that growth was driven by a significant adjustment to trade, which added considerable momentum. Notably, the… More >>

This week isn’t just busy—it’s defining. From the Federal Reserve’s rate decision to a crush of earnings from the most influential names in the S&P 500, markets are heading into what could be the most consequential stretch of the summer. With economic data, earnings,… More >>

What productivity, inflation, and the consumer are telling investors right now. It’s easy to stay skeptical in a noisy world. But sometimes, the most bullish signals are the quietest. Zoom out, and a compelling picture emerges: recession fears are retreating,… More >>

Just as equity markets hit all time highs after recovering from the tariff threats in April, we have tariff threats 2.0. This time it’s a 30% tariff on the European Union and Mexico, two of the countries we have large trade deficits with. Oddly enough, the U.S. has… More >>

We wrapped up one of the most consequential periods for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 recovered all its losses in the quarter and then some, rising 30% from the April 7th lows.1 In fact, it’s one of the most rapid recoveries since 1950, with a 1.6 month bear market, no… More >>

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high coming off a near bear market drawdown of 18.9% just a few months ago. In fact, it happened in record time.1 Now you might be thinking, “is the other shoe about to drop?”  Well, historically these rapid recoveries have some legs to… More >>

Geopolitical events took a turn for the worse over the weekend with the US bombing of Iran nuclear enrichment facilities. It’s hard to say what the ramifications and consequences of another Middle East conflict will be for the United States. Equity markets will… More >>

The recent conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has been on the radar for a long time but until now was always a low probability event. No longer. The missile strikes bring a host of new geopolitical risks beyond tariffs.1  Israel struck key Iranian… More >>

Higher Tariffs, More Jobs, Lower Prices! The recent jobs report reflects continuing strength in the overall economy.  The US added 139,000 jobs in May. While cooling is still relatively strong, with a 6-month average of 157,000 jobs that’s more than enough to absorb new… More >>

For weeks, we've heard whispers of a slowing economy, and rightly so. But when we dig into the latest economic reports, a more nuanced picture emerges for the American consumer: one of caution, yes, but certainly not collapse. In fact, it's a story underpinned by continued… More >>