Archives for January, 2023

  1. January 30, 2023

    The recent release of U.S. GDP growth confirmed we are far from an economic recession. The U.S. grew at an impressive 2.9% in Q4. An inventory buildup and some modest help from the consumer are keeping the economy on a growth track. 1 Consumers contributed 1.42% to GDP… More >>

  2. January 23, 2023

    Just as we digest the possibility of a soft economic landing later this year, we will face a perilous self-inflicted wound: the debt ceiling. The U.S. government reached its borrowing limit last week and Congress must contend with expanding the amount of debt the Treasury… More >>

  3. January 17, 2023

    The possibility of an economic soft landing vs. a recession later in the year inched closer to reality. Inflation moderated for the fifth consecutive month in December. Headline CPI slowed to 6.5% year-over-year in December vs. 7.1% in November. Core CPI slowed to 5.7% vs.… More >>

  4. January 9, 2023

    We are finally getting into the part of the economic cycle where we will start to see a visible slowing in the economy. Remember, a slower economy should pull inflation lower and help the Fed put a pause on interest rates. Both manufacturing and service activity have… More >>

  5. January 3, 2023

    Our Q1 2023 Look Ahead is available for review. The video link is here and the PDF version is here. In this post, we highlight some key themes we see coming this quarter. The main question for 2023 is whether a recession is coming. Our view is that although the yield… More >>