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The recent drumbeat for a US recession is mounting and will dominate the news cycle this week. With US economic growth (GDP) releasing on Wednesday, economists will likely increase their probabilities for a recession. According to Bloomberg, forecasters now see a 45%… More >>

The US Consumer once again contradicted their self-reported dour mood and continued to spend in March. Retail sales were up 4.6% year over year. Some of this was a pull forward in consumption driven by the tariffs on autos, although almost every segment saw increases in… More >>

Consumer confidence took another perilous drop in last week’s Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan.  This decline represents a multi-month drop in the consumer's attitude.  In fact, consumer sentiment has been down over 30% since December 2024 and is… More >>

  It certainly looks like that will be the case with the current Trump tariffs.  The formula used was an oddity and caught many off guard.  The division by two is driven by the Administration wanting to be “reasonable” according to President Trump.  In any case,… More >>