The Parlor Trick!
It’s time for the annual tradition by Wall Street firms to make their incredibly inaccurate forecasts for 2019. Astonishingly, the average expected return for 2019 is over 20 percent. [i]
I’m not sure how they do this, or why they get away with such amazing inaccuracy, but they do. Last year, the average Wall Street firm missed its own forecasts by more than double; overstating returns by as much as 9.81 percent. [i]
It’s hard to believe all this enthusiasm, especially at a time when corporate earnings are downshifting. [i]
Perhaps it’s that valuations across major indices have corrected so much. [i]
We try to avoid the Wall Street Parlor Tricks out of respect for the intelligence of our clients. We all know there is no sustainable way to predict the future year-after-year. What we do attempt, is to unpack the major themes and metrics that can impact your investments in 2019. Just click here; we’ve done our best to help you gain some value from our Q1 2019 Look Ahead.
Tim Phillips, CEO, Phillips & Company
Robert Dinelli, Investment Analyst, Phillips & Company