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The S&P 500 hit an all-time high coming off a near bear market drawdown of 18.9% just a few months ago. In fact, it happened in record time.1 Now you might be thinking, “is the other shoe about to drop?”  Well, historically these rapid recoveries have some legs to… More >>

Geopolitical events took a turn for the worse over the weekend with the US bombing of Iran nuclear enrichment facilities. It’s hard to say what the ramifications and consequences of another Middle East conflict will be for the United States. Equity markets will… More >>

The recent conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has been on the radar for a long time but until now was always a low probability event. No longer. The missile strikes bring a host of new geopolitical risks beyond tariffs.1  Israel struck key Iranian… More >>

Higher Tariffs, More Jobs, Lower Prices! The recent jobs report reflects continuing strength in the overall economy.  The US added 139,000 jobs in May. While cooling is still relatively strong, with a 6-month average of 157,000 jobs that’s more than enough to absorb new… More >>

For weeks, we've heard whispers of a slowing economy, and rightly so. But when we dig into the latest economic reports, a more nuanced picture emerges for the American consumer: one of caution, yes, but certainly not collapse. In fact, it's a story underpinned by continued… More >>

Bond yields are once again on the rise—a trend that spells trouble for the U.S. consumer. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed to 4.51%, pushing 30-year mortgage rates back above 7%. This upward movement in rates is particularly damaging for the housing… More >>

We are only about 3% below the all-time highs on the S&P 500. Who could have imagined we would be back at these levels so quickly with all that is going on?1 You and I did! That’s right, the average investor held their resolve and stayed invested while the… More >>

We finally had our first tariff off-ramp. Last week, the Trump administration announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom. It reflected deep economic alignment, strategic trust, and a shared framework of market capitalism. It was also because the trade difference… More >>

Over the last nine consecutive days, the S&P 500 has recovered all its losses since the April 2nd launch of the Trump trade war. This is the longest S&P 500 winning streak in the last 20 years.1 The historic rally occurred even considering a mix of economic… More >>

The recent drumbeat for a US recession is mounting and will dominate the news cycle this week. With US economic growth (GDP) releasing on Wednesday, economists will likely increase their probabilities for a recession. According to Bloomberg, forecasters now see a 45%… More >>