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We’re just a day away from electing a President, and the headline economy is performing very well. The U.S. economy expanded in Q3, with 2.8% GDP growth and consumer spending constituting 3.7% of that growth. This represents the highest consumer growth rate since Q1 2023.… More >>

  Last week’s post focused on earnings, but I included a small teaser on tax policy using the chart below. It generated some interest, so perhaps it's time to take a macro look at the implications of both the Harris and Trump tax policies. 1     According to the Tax… More >>

In the coming weeks, the amount of political noise will be all-consuming. I’m sure it will be sucking all of the oxygen out of the earnings season which will be in full swing by the November election. The various tax proposals will be mind-boggling, with daily… More >>

The S&P 500 touched another record high last week, marking the 45th time it has set a record this year. Last week’s blog covered the topic of extreme pessimism. Really smart people can be seduced into pessimistic thinking even when the only logical reaction should be… More >>

The world is grappling with a series of challenges: Escalating wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, a cataclysmic hurricane in the Southeast, and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Presidential election. For investors, it feels like scaling a wall of worry. While… More >>

Equity markets maintained their upward momentum in the third quarter. For the first time in several quarters, large cap core outperformed growth. As interest rates began to decrease, we witnessed a tech sector recovery late in the quarter. This rate reduction also boosted… More >>

The Federal Reserve's much-anticipated interest rate cut materialized last week. The Fed slashed rates by 50 basis points (bps) and signaled more reductions on the horizon. The Federal Reserve Board's rate-setting committee provided some forward guidance: an additional 50… More >>

This week the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates. In fact, current market expectations suggest a 39% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 61% chance of a more substantial 50 basis point reduction. But is this good news for investors? 1 I,… More >>

In the world of interest rates, things have finally returned to normal. Short-term rates are now lower than long-term rates and that seems right. Investors should get compensated more for longer duration bonds compared to shorter duration bonds. The yield curve began to… More >>

As the U.S. economy creeps towards a round of rate cuts, I think it’s important to take a step back and look at what is going to happen to all the money on the sidelines. Right now, money markets are sitting on a record $6 trillion. 1 The allure of higher yields on… More >>