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Recent Posts

  1. July 5, 2021

    We just published our Q3 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. The Consumer is in ControlThe U.S. Consumer has stockpiled approximately $2.3 trillion in savings, or 10.4% of GDP. As the economy reopens, we expect consumers… More >>

  2. June 28, 2021

    As the U.S. economy is on the mend and moving toward a “return to normal” we need to be mindful of the extraordinary inputs the U.S. Consumer has been living on. The combination of transfer payments, one-time payments, rent abatements, and expanded unemployment benefits… More >>

  3. June 21, 2021

    As the economy is muddling through a reopening, fits and starts to supply and demand should be the only expectation. While volatility has been declining as we have been working our way to an economic reopening, investors should get used to living with volatility. [i]… More >>

  4. June 17, 2021

    Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of both the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis.… More >>

  5. June 14, 2021

    Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis. [i]… More >>

  6. June 7, 2021

    As I write this post, I am having breakfast at a hotel in California. I ordered eggs and was told they have no eggs and that it is very spotty when they come in. Are chickens not laying eggs due to COVID? I don’t think so. [i] Egg pickers, truck drivers, packaging plant… More >>

  7. June 1, 2021

    Last week it was reported that U.S. GDP grew by 6.4% in Q1, primarily attributable to the boost delivered by new stimulus injections during the quarter. [i] [ii] The predominant driver was consumer spending which grew 11.3% and contributed 7.4 percentage points to GDP,… More >>

  8. May 24, 2021

    This week we will host Jude Blanchette from the Center for Strategic International Studies to discuss China and the United States. CSIS is a globally relevant, nonpartisan think tank ranking amongst the best in Washington. CSIS is a clear leader in advising companies and… More >>

  9. May 17, 2021

    The “get back to work” wage is becoming a crisis in almost every state. Our evaluation suggested it would take approximately $19.35 per hour to get people back to work based upon all of the state and federal unemployment payments being provided. [i] As of this morning,… More >>

  10. May 10, 2021

    Just about everywhere in the United States, visible examples of the mismatch between supply and demand are occurring in our economy. Everyone has likely experienced the supply/demand curve shifting—it is almost daily when it comes to the supply of labor and demand for… More >>

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