Recent Posts

  1. December 18, 2023

    In a consequential week of economic reports, the Federal Reserve signaled an end to the rate hike cycle we’ve been in for over a year. While Fed Chair Powell didn’t explicitly say rate cuts were guaranteed, the nuance was pretty clear. According to the those that… More >>

  2. December 11, 2023

    The Federal Reserve is going to be meeting this week and will likely confirm their pause in raising rates. So far, the Fed has orchestrated a perfect economic soft landing, if you want to give them credit for that. The latest consumer price report (PCE) solidified the… More >>

  3. December 4, 2023

    The macro noise is deafening. So how is it possible we just finished one of the best months equity markets have seen in a long time? The S&P 500 was up almost 9% in November and a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds had their best month in 30 years, up 7.3%. 1… More >>

  4. November 27, 2023

    I should never doubt the US Consumer.  If you believed the recent Consumer Confidence Survey, the US Consumer should have been holding onto their pocketbooks this shopping season.  Consumer Confidence is incredibly low according to the survey by the University of… More >>

  5. November 20, 2023

    I concluded two weeks in SE Asia, simultaneously digesting incoming data from the United States and watching real-time economics play out in Asia. Macroeconomic themes that I saw play out firsthand: The property market slowdown in China. Slower luxury goods consumption… More >>

  6. November 13, 2023

    I write this post from Hong Kong, my first trip back to Asia post the pandemic. The opportunity to visit with large capital allocators including our friends at JPMorgan and witness China’s largest single shopping day of the year on November 11th provided a great backdrop… More >>

  7. November 6, 2023

    The recent jobs report should give some reprieve to the Fed’s rapid rate increase cycle. The U.S. economy added 150,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. On a revised basis, job growth is now averaging 204,000 over the last 3 months compared to the… More >>

  8. October 30, 2023

    Americans increasingly dipped into their savings during the third quarter. The personal saving rate dropped to 3.8% in the third quarter from 5.2% in the second quarter. Consumer spending rose 4%, powered in large part by discretionary purchases on things like vacation,… More >>

  9. October 23, 2023

    Typically, under ordinary circumstances, bond investors expect to get paid more for holding a long-term bond than a short-term bond, as more uncertainty in the future deserves to be compensated. This is what a normal yield curve looks like. 1 Over the last 15 months the… More >>

  10. October 16, 2023

    Are we at the doorstep of a disinflation or deflationary period? The latest report on core Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) would suggest not. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 4.1% year-over-year in September. 1 Further, core services prices, excluding housing,… More >>

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