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It’s hard to keep track of the multiple narratives driving our economy and equity markets right now. Let me see if I can reduce the noise and clarify what should be the main focal points. First, the most recent survey from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment… More >>

The wall of worry investors are facing continues to expand, and as we wrote last week, the policy volatility is not alleviating any tension.  However, much of the worry is still noise.  For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow forecast suggests we are in a recession in Q1. … More >>

As discussed in last week’s post, the Friday charts on inflation told us a lot about the direction of interest rates and the economy. Fortunately, according to the Federal Reserve’s favored indicator (PCE), inflation is back to trending favorably. 1 Across almost all… More >>

This week, all eyes are on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, with the January 2025 data set to drop on Friday, February 28th. As of today, economists and market watchers are buzzing with expectations – and… More >>

I often have to catch myself when things look a little grey on the macro picture. We’ve had a spate of economic releases and earnings expectations that suggest maybe things are slowing, or at least not as rosy as we would like. Retail sales were weaker than anticipated in… More >>

As we enter another busy week of economic brinkmanship with tariffs, tax proposals, and spending cuts, it might be time to frame the mathematical challenge. The Federal Government is spending about $1.9 trillion more than they take in. 1 At 6.1% of GDP, this deficit… More >>

This weekend, President Trump announced broad-reaching tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. The measures include a 25% tariff on almost all goods from Canada (excluding energy resources) and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Canada has… More >>

Despite this morning’s market turbulence sparked by Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low-cost AI model challenging tech valuations, the latest wave of Q4 earnings reports has injected fresh optimism into market sentiment, particularly following upbeat results from major… More >>

Standing at the threshold of one of the most anticipated periods on the financial calendar – corporate earnings season – we find ourselves getting back to what matters most for equity markets. This time of the year, companies from various sectors open their books,… More >>

Bond yields have been rising at an alarming rate recently, especially considering the Federal Reserve has been cutting short-term interest rates. 1 The Fed Funds rate is 100 bps lower, yet the 10-year Treasury yield is just over 100 bps higher. That’s certainly not… More >>