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Bond yields are once again on the rise—a trend that spells trouble for the U.S. consumer. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed to 4.51%, pushing 30-year mortgage rates back above 7%. This upward movement in rates is particularly damaging for the housing… More >>

We are only about 3% below the all-time highs on the S&P 500. Who could have imagined we would be back at these levels so quickly with all that is going on?1 You and I did! That’s right, the average investor held their resolve and stayed invested while the… More >>

We finally had our first tariff off-ramp. Last week, the Trump administration announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom. It reflected deep economic alignment, strategic trust, and a shared framework of market capitalism. It was also because the trade difference… More >>

Over the last nine consecutive days, the S&P 500 has recovered all its losses since the April 2nd launch of the Trump trade war. This is the longest S&P 500 winning streak in the last 20 years.1 The historic rally occurred even considering a mix of economic… More >>

The recent drumbeat for a US recession is mounting and will dominate the news cycle this week. With US economic growth (GDP) releasing on Wednesday, economists will likely increase their probabilities for a recession. According to Bloomberg, forecasters now see a 45%… More >>

The US Consumer once again contradicted their self-reported dour mood and continued to spend in March. Retail sales were up 4.6% year over year. Some of this was a pull forward in consumption driven by the tariffs on autos, although almost every segment saw increases in… More >>

Consumer confidence took another perilous drop in last week’s Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan.  This decline represents a multi-month drop in the consumer's attitude.  In fact, consumer sentiment has been down over 30% since December 2024 and is… More >>

  It certainly looks like that will be the case with the current Trump tariffs.  The formula used was an oddity and caught many off guard.  The division by two is driven by the Administration wanting to be “reasonable” according to President Trump.  In any case,… More >>

As we step into Q2 2025, the economic landscape is shaped by a myriad of factors. Our latest Q2 2025 Look Ahead report dives deep into the nuanced interplay between consumer sentiment, policy uncertainty, and the potential for interest rate cuts.  1.  Consumer Sentiment vs.… More >>

Sentiment has turned decidedly sour. The recent survey on consumer attitudes by the University of Michigan points to this marked decline.1 Inflation concerns, along with the headline uncertainty around tariffs, are to blame. Tariffs are a form of sales tax and that has… More >>