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It would appear the cataclysmic “debt ceiling” debate could be in our rear-view mirror. However, never underestimate the ability of Congress to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I’m not suggesting higher debt and borrowing are good for our economy, but not paying our… More >>

“Knowing how to see" The negativity in the United States is palpable. I make a point of traveling often for the purpose of seeing what’s going on in our economy. Since most of our economy is driven by consumption it’s not too difficult to get a bird’s-eye view of what’s… More >>

Inflation is finally abating according to last week’s Consumer Price Inflation report. Headline inflation came down to 4.9%, the 10th consecutive monthly decline. Is it too soon to use the word transitory again? 1 On a percentage change basis, it’s one of the more rapid… More >>

After one of the most rapid and extreme increases in interest rates in history, I believe the Fed is about to signal a pivot to a pause. I’ll lay out the case and conclude with the Fed’s comments. 1 In light of the strength in the recent jobs report, one might wonder if… More >>

Notwithstanding another bank failure (First Republic Bank) the reports of the impending demise of the U.S. economy are still over exaggerated. The possibility of a soft landing or a modest growth recession is still in the mix. Mixed Bag #1 Yes, U.S. GDP growth came it at… More >>

It’s been a long, quiet period between earnings reports and that silence has provided the backdrop for a host of other topics to reign supreme. However, corporate earnings reports will start flooding in this week and by the end of next week we should have a pretty good… More >>

Bank failures, ground wars in Europe, inflation, rising interest rates, and the impending doom of a recession. It’s enough to make any investor want to run for cover. This is the time where you, as an investor, and us, as your guide, tend to find friction in our… More >>

The gap between the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and what investors believe is still fairly wide. 1 However, recent macroeconomic data may have moved investors and the Fed a bit closer together. The 236,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy in March provided some relief… More >>

Q1 ended with reasonably strong equity performance across various indexes. 1 Take a look at how we see the coming quarter by clicking on this link to our Q2 2023 Look Ahead. While U.S. corporate earnings expectations are negative for Q2; equity performance,… More >>

Did the Federal Reserve, in their last meeting, call for a recession later this year? It was no surprise to us that the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week. That’s the headline. Buried in the details were various Fed Governors’ predictions on inflation,… More >>