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After one of the most rapid and extreme increases in interest rates in history, I believe the Fed is about to signal a pivot to a pause. I’ll lay out the case and conclude with the Fed’s comments. 1 In light of the strength in the recent jobs report, one might wonder if… More >>

Notwithstanding another bank failure (First Republic Bank) the reports of the impending demise of the U.S. economy are still over exaggerated. The possibility of a soft landing or a modest growth recession is still in the mix. Mixed Bag #1 Yes, U.S. GDP growth came it at… More >>

It’s been a long, quiet period between earnings reports and that silence has provided the backdrop for a host of other topics to reign supreme. However, corporate earnings reports will start flooding in this week and by the end of next week we should have a pretty good… More >>

Bank failures, ground wars in Europe, inflation, rising interest rates, and the impending doom of a recession. It’s enough to make any investor want to run for cover. This is the time where you, as an investor, and us, as your guide, tend to find friction in our… More >>

The gap between the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and what investors believe is still fairly wide. 1 However, recent macroeconomic data may have moved investors and the Fed a bit closer together. The 236,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy in March provided some relief… More >>

Q1 ended with reasonably strong equity performance across various indexes. 1 Take a look at how we see the coming quarter by clicking on this link to our Q2 2023 Look Ahead. While U.S. corporate earnings expectations are negative for Q2; equity performance,… More >>

Did the Federal Reserve, in their last meeting, call for a recession later this year? It was no surprise to us that the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week. That’s the headline. Buried in the details were various Fed Governors’ predictions on inflation,… More >>

Once again we need to fix our eyes around the corner from the recent banking turmoil. Last week we reviewed the fractional banking system. That was just the start to a deeper review. The real question I have been asking myself is what the second order effects of the… More >>

  By the time we publish this post the fallout from the failure of the 16th largest bank in America will certainly come into focus. Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) is going to be the second largest bank to fail in American history. 1 While we have all been watching the “shiny… More >>

There’s only so much one can write about the ongoing battle between inflation, interest rates, and stock prices in the United States. The past several posts cover that topic with sufficient rigor. Perhaps I will pivot to the second largest economy in the world, China, and… More >>