Blog

  A plethora of economic data was released last week that helped to provide a recovery rally in U.S. equity markets. First, U.S. GDP for Q2 was revised much higher than estimated on the first report. U.S. GDP grew by 3.7% up from Q1 growth of .6% and Q2 first estimate of… More >>

  It should come as little surprise to those that read our posts that we have had a full correction in U.S. Equities (defined as a 10% drop). After all, it's been over 1,420 days since we have had a correction of this magnitude. In fact, when you look at the frequency of… More >>

  The US economy is strengthening by most economic accounts (see our post from last week). It's no wonder we hear lots of news about the Fed raising rates in September with almost certainty of seeing at least a rate increase in 2015. The probability of a rate increase by… More >>

  Is the US Economy about to launch into a phase of consumption driven by confidence, wages, and income? Let's take a very quick look and contemplate how likely we are to achieve lift off. The US Economy added 215,000 more jobs in June, according the latest report from the… More >>

  After spending 30 years as a professional investor on behalf of others, I've grown accustomed to the rhythms of the market. More important, I've grown more attuned to the rhythms of our clients and investors. Right around this time of a long run bull market when earnings… More >>

  This week we finally witnessed the equity markets owning up to a well known reality; earnings matter! We've been warning for several months that second quarter earnings for the broad market (S&P 500) were expected to decline. As of June 30, according to FactSet,… More >>

  Spain just celebrated their Festival of San Fermin with the traditional Running of the Bulls. The single mindedness of a bull and the tremendous force with which a bull can charge, is quite a thing to witness up close. Once a bull is charging full steam ahead, getting… More >>

Each quarter we prepare our near term Look Ahead. Our goal is to attempt to frame the macro-economic and asset allocation issues we face when trying to invest wisely. Below is a link to a video version of our Look Ahead for your review. Q3 2015 Look Ahead If you prefer… More >>

Cross Over Period The end of Q2 was anything but a sleeper for US and Global equities. You can see from the table below the results were a yawner for US Equites but the volatility was far from it.   Comparison of Q2 Index Price Change vs. Volatility (i)(ii)   The… More >>

  This past week was perhaps one of the most consequential weeks the world and especially the US has seen in quite some time. Between the Supreme Court rulings and the Senate’s passage of the fast-track legislation, which may lead to the passage of the 12-nation… More >>