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  The US Consumer balance sheet is as strong as it has ever looked. With 97 trillion in assets and 14 trillion in liabilities, consumers have a very strong net worth. In fact, when you look at American’s debt service levels they are at the lowest point since the… More >>

  Finally, there’s some good news from the consumer. Retail sales were up 1.2% from last month with gains in almost all sectors.[i] On a year over year basis retail sales are up 2.7% and if you exclude auto and gasoline they are up 4.3%. Perhaps we are finally seeing the… More >>

  Waiting to Exhale – Quickly Last Friday's employment report provided a brief moment to exhale as it suggests the US economy may not slip into a recession during the second quarter. US companies added 280,000 jobs during the month of May, much stronger than the… More >>

  It seems to me that everyone is talking about the excessive valuations the US equity markets are trading at today. Indeed it is elevated, and certainly much of the concern is warranted based upon dismal Q1 earnings.[i] The diatribe has almost reached a crescendo when I… More >>

  We are approaching a very large US macroeconomic data point on May 29 – the revised Q1 US GDP reading. I want to raise a little red flag. It should come as no surprise to our readers that Q1 US GDP came in at a very anemic .2% growth.[i] In fact, for several years we… More >>

  If you have been reading our recent posts, you know we have become increasingly concerned about corporate earnings growth. Although speculators will make investments based upon a host of reasons, we tend to stay focused on what matters...earnings. Earnings have been… More >>

  There was a lot going on during the week with earnings season coming very close to an end and a big jobs report on Friday. Earnings are weak and got weaker as the season progressed.[i] On the other hand, the job market heated up considerably in April from a revised,… More >>

  As we anticipated in last week’s post, US GDP did come in at a very disappointing 0.2% growth.[i] This was anemic and also much slower growth than the expected growth of 1.0%.[ii] When you examine the component parts of US GDP, (Consumption + Investment + Government… More >>

  This Wednesday, we will get confirmation on what has been the most anticipated economic event of the year, United States Q1 GDP growth. We may also receive insights about the economy and interest rates from the Fed, which has a meeting this week as well. It's clear that… More >>

  It’s the start of earnings season, so let's take an early look at the numbers. With 56 of the S&P 500 companies reporting so far, earnings are coming in better than expected with 43 companies (77%) beating estimates.[i] Some bad news in the numbers appears on two… More >>