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As the U.S. economy is on the mend and moving toward a “return to normal” we need to be mindful of the extraordinary inputs the U.S. Consumer has been living on. The combination of transfer payments, one-time payments, rent abatements, and expanded unemployment benefits… More >>

As the economy is muddling through a reopening, fits and starts to supply and demand should be the only expectation. While volatility has been declining as we have been working our way to an economic reopening, investors should get used to living with volatility. [i]… More >>

Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of both the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis.… More >>

Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis. [i]… More >>

As I write this post, I am having breakfast at a hotel in California. I ordered eggs and was told they have no eggs and that it is very spotty when they come in. Are chickens not laying eggs due to COVID? I don’t think so. [i] Egg pickers, truck drivers, packaging plant… More >>

Last week it was reported that U.S. GDP grew by 6.4% in Q1, primarily attributable to the boost delivered by new stimulus injections during the quarter. [i] [ii] The predominant driver was consumer spending which grew 11.3% and contributed 7.4 percentage points to GDP,… More >>