Blog

  One of my favorite poets, T.S Elliot, wrote in his seminal poem The Dry Salvages (1941), "We had the experience and missed the meaning."[1] It's quite possible we are about to encounter a global event where we might just miss the meaning. While much of the world debates… More >>

  With the Federal Reserve taking extraordinary measures since 2008 to lower interest rates, we know that rates will have to go higher eventually; it’s a question of when and how quickly? The Fed typically offers vague guidance on future interest rate policy, much like… More >>

  I often try to assess whether we are in an equity bubble (unsustainable price valuations on stocks) to add perspective to the allocation work we do at Phillips & Company. This week in Barron's and during a private investment strategy meeting I attended, one of the… More >>

  On Thursday, the Fed released its quarterly net worth statistics for American households and nonprofit organizations.[i] The data suggests that household net worth is now at record levels, over $10 trillion above 2008 levels, thanks to gains from stock, bond, and real… More >>

  There is so much going on that a very big event, Facebook’s acquisition of WhatsApp, might get obscured by other news. Russia invaded the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine. Being a noteworthy topic, there should be plenty of punditry to inform all of us on the significance of… More >>

  On Thursday of last week, The Federal Reserve released the minutes from their meeting on January 29, 2014. They made an astonishing statement: "...the Committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as… More >>

  As we have opined in the past several months, much of the US GDP growth has come from businesses pushing "all in" on the US consumer and building up inventories to meet expected demand. (Source: Moody’s Analytics, GDP) As the impact of inventory on GDP begins to… More >>

  (click here for a definition) The latest jobs report should confirm a concern we have expressed for many years; the economy continues to need extraordinary action by the Federal Reserve to keep the macro US economy limping along. In December, the monthly jobs report… More >>

  We are now 40% of the way through earnings season. It's a good time to take a quick look at how the scorecard looks—especially since we have seen much of our recent stock price appreciation driven by multiple expansion rather than earnings growth. [i] According to our… More >>

  Friday's market action was some of the most severe to the downside we have seen in months. In fact, the 318 point drop on the Dow was the largest since June 20. [i] (Source: Bloomberg LP) The reasons for the sudden drop are really anyone's guess. Some of the "talking… More >>