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  The answer: Most of Wall Street, including to some degree us, when it comes to the short-term direction of interest rates. While we knew rates would be persistently low for some period of time, we expected a small rise in rates at the beginning of the year. See our… More >>

  Jobs continue to dominate the headlines since Janet Yellen took control of the Federal Reserve. She has a legitimate dual mandate to improve the jobs picture by fostering "full-employment", estimated as longer-term unemployment in the range of 5.2% to 6.0%, and… More >>

In The Wizard of Oz, the Cowardly Lion needed courage to overcome his fears and build some confidence. Based on recent data, the players in the housing market may be in need of some courage, as there appears to be plenty of signs of doubt with respect to the economic… More >>

  These last few weeks have seen a quieter equity market with lower volumes and volatility moderating from some recent spikes.[i],[ii] As earnings season winds down, we have seen better than expected revenue numbers from Corporate America. As observed in the chart… More >>

  It appears the economy might be coming off the life support provided to us by the Federal Reserve. Since 2009, the Fed has expanded their balance sheet by about $2 trillion to get to where we are today. Source: Federal Reserve. In its April meeting, the Fed continued… More >>

  In the Phillips & Company 2014 Q2 Look Ahead, I noted that while year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) growth was strong in 2013 Q4, most of it came from margin expansion as opposed to revenue growth.[i] Companies grew profits mainly by controlling expenses.… More >>

  Another tax season is over, making this an excellent time to examine the size of the tax bite that you sustained and to consider strategies to reduce your taxes for coming year. The 2013 tax year included two changes that may have increased your taxes: a 39.6% marginal… More >>

  Volatility. I'm not referring to tremors or seismic events in the title. US and Global equity markets added some significant volatility this week in light of a weaker than expected start to the earnings season.[i] Volatility is up with only a few companies reporting… More >>

  The US jobs report on Friday was only exceptional in one regard. It wasn't the 192k jobs added in March to the US economy. It wasn't the paltry 1k manufacturing jobs created. What was exceptional was the fact that we have now recovered all of the jobs lost during the… More >>

  One of my favorite poets, T.S Elliot, wrote in his seminal poem The Dry Salvages (1941), "We had the experience and missed the meaning."[1] It's quite possible we are about to encounter a global event where we might just miss the meaning. While much of the world debates… More >>