This week we finally witnessed the equity markets owning up to a well known reality; earnings matter! We've been warning for several months that second quarter earnings for the broad market (S&P 500) were expected to decline.
As of June 30, according to FactSet,… More >>
Spain just celebrated their Festival of San Fermin with the traditional Running of the Bulls. The single mindedness of a bull and the tremendous force with which a bull can charge, is quite a thing to witness up close. Once a bull is charging full steam ahead, getting… More >>
Each quarter we prepare our near term Look Ahead. Our goal is to attempt to frame the macro-economic and asset allocation issues we face when trying to invest wisely.
Below is a link to a video version of our Look Ahead for your review.
Q3 2015 Look Ahead
If you prefer… More >>
Cross Over Period
The end of Q2 was anything but a sleeper for US and Global equities. You can see from the table below the results were a yawner for US Equites but the volatility was far from it.
Comparison of Q2 Index Price Change vs. Volatility
(i)(ii)
The… More >>
This past week was perhaps one of the most consequential weeks the world and especially the US has seen in quite some time. Between the Supreme Court rulings and the Senate’s passage of the fast-track legislation, which may lead to the passage of the 12-nation… More >>
The US Consumer balance sheet is as strong as it has ever looked. With 97 trillion in assets and 14 trillion in liabilities, consumers have a very strong net worth.
In fact, when you look at American’s debt service levels they are at the lowest point since the… More >>
Finally, there’s some good news from the consumer. Retail sales were up 1.2% from last month with gains in almost all sectors.[i]
On a year over year basis retail sales are up 2.7% and if you exclude auto and gasoline they are up 4.3%. Perhaps we are finally seeing the… More >>
Waiting to Exhale – Quickly
Last Friday's employment report provided a brief moment to exhale as it suggests the US economy may not slip into a recession during the second quarter.
US companies added 280,000 jobs during the month of May, much stronger than the… More >>
It seems to me that everyone is talking about the excessive valuations the US equity markets are trading at today. Indeed it is elevated, and certainly much of the concern is warranted based upon dismal Q1 earnings.[i]
The diatribe has almost reached a crescendo when I… More >>
We are approaching a very large US macroeconomic data point on May 29 – the revised Q1 US GDP reading. I want to raise a little red flag.
It should come as no surprise to our readers that Q1 US GDP came in at a very anemic .2% growth.[i] In fact, for several years we… More >>