Blog

  NowCasts on GDP growth, as we have been discussing in prior posts (here), have come to fruition with the official reporting of U.S. GDP for Q1 2016. The U.S. Economy grew at a paltry 0.5% in Q1 2016, consistent with prior Q1 reports of the past. [i] While real wages… More >>

  For the past 8 years, Global Central Banks (agents for governments) have been fighting deflation using extraordinary policy tools, such as near zero interest rates, buying mortgages, buying corporate bonds, negative interest rates, and in some cases, buying equity in… More >>

  Finally, economists have surrendered. Or at least, tacitly admitted their ability to forecast recessions or significant changes in the business cycle or the economy is limited, if not completely faulty. Instead, many economists are now using a different approach to… More >>

  I spent the last week in Havana Cuba seeing firsthand what a communist/fascist country looks like, not just economically, but emotionally for its citizens. Needless to say, the infrastructure is abysmal, but more importantly, the citizenry is fearful and certainly lacks… More >>

  Wow! That's all one can say about the wild ride Wall Street provided investors during Q1. The S&P 500 was down a whopping 11.11% before rallying back 14.6%, all in the same quarter! I believe that these are both record events to start any year off; the drop and… More >>

  As we near the end of Q1 and what started off as the worst start to a year in U.S. stock market history, perhaps it's time to look at what actually drives most corporate earnings: Consumption. In one form or another, the U.S. consumer drives corporate sales which should… More >>

  If there was any doubt about what has been sending equity prices higher, that doubt should be eliminated. It's clear to me global coordinated Fed/Central Bank policy is driving equity markets. Last week the Federal Reserve met and released their expectation for interest… More >>

  U.S. equity markets have been on a tear as of late. In fact, from our post, Inflection Point, where we wrote the “U.S. investor would need to choose a set of data to focus on;” we have our answer. They are clearly focused on macro trends and discounting the lack of… More >>

  The political silly season is in full swing and it would be laughable if it weren’t so serious. In an effort to add some rationality to the passionate debate, let's review the impact of a trade war and isolationist policies on the U.S. economy. The backdrop to much of… More >>

  It appears the one trend we wanted to see a reversal in continues on a downward trajectory.... Earnings. Each week we see more analysts push back their expectations for a recovery in earnings growth of the S&P 500 companies. This week was no exception. While earnings… More >>