Blog

  Friday was a seminal day which presented both investors and global Central Bankers with something to chew on. The U.S. economy added a meager 38K to jobs in May, well below the 158K jobs analysts had forecasted. Sure, there was a Verizon employee strike. But even when… More >>

  As part of our on-going discussion on how Central Banks throughout the world are controlling valuations across multiple asset classes, it appears that the U.S. investor has acquiesced on the inevitable rate increase coming this June or, at the latest, July. Janet Yellen… More >>

  Credit in America is booming. There is simply no other way to say this. Let’s take a look at the recent data. Credit card debt is expected to top $1 trillion by the end of 2016, which comes close to the peak that was set prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis. [i] [ii]… More >>

  The Good On Friday, it was reported that American Consumers are finally opening up their wallets, recording the biggest consumption increase in a year. U.S. retail sales surged 1.3% in April, the largest increase since March 2015, as Americans stepped up purchases of… More >>

  For months, we have been tracking the fact that U.S. corporate earnings are in a growth slump, or as we’ve been calling it, an earnings recession. With 87% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings for Q1 2016, we can now confirm we will have a 4th consecutive quarter… More >>

  NowCasts on GDP growth, as we have been discussing in prior posts (here), have come to fruition with the official reporting of U.S. GDP for Q1 2016. The U.S. Economy grew at a paltry 0.5% in Q1 2016, consistent with prior Q1 reports of the past. [i] While real wages… More >>

  For the past 8 years, Global Central Banks (agents for governments) have been fighting deflation using extraordinary policy tools, such as near zero interest rates, buying mortgages, buying corporate bonds, negative interest rates, and in some cases, buying equity in… More >>

  Finally, economists have surrendered. Or at least, tacitly admitted their ability to forecast recessions or significant changes in the business cycle or the economy is limited, if not completely faulty. Instead, many economists are now using a different approach to… More >>

  I spent the last week in Havana Cuba seeing firsthand what a communist/fascist country looks like, not just economically, but emotionally for its citizens. Needless to say, the infrastructure is abysmal, but more importantly, the citizenry is fearful and certainly lacks… More >>

  Wow! That's all one can say about the wild ride Wall Street provided investors during Q1. The S&P 500 was down a whopping 11.11% before rallying back 14.6%, all in the same quarter! I believe that these are both record events to start any year off; the drop and… More >>