Blog

It’s easy to get lost in the day-to-day pain of demand destruction. Living through economic cycles is a discipline of its own for investors. One thing that helps is to reflect on the cause, as it generally provides the path to a solution. In our current case, the cause… More >>

It’s been a nasty year for portfolios, especially those traditionally considered conservative like the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. 1 Much of the portfolio headwind is being driven by raising rates and the Fed’s policy to combat inflation. Bonds typically act as an… More >>

For many months I have been focused on the tension between inflation and a recession, with the principal actor being the Federal Reserve. Can the Fed skillfully land a 23 trillion-dollar economy in a soft spot while fighting 8% inflation? It’s clear some don’t believe that’s… More >>

Transitory might just rear its head again as a way to describe inflation. In the most recent reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s favored inflation gauge; inflation continued to ease ever so slightly. 1 Perhaps this is why we are seeing a… More >>

Last week’s market activity took an even darker turn, with the S&P 500 falling for the seventh consecutive week. 1 The S&P 500 touched bear market territory, if only briefly, down 20%. 2 Bear markets are just part of the cycle and that’s the risk we accept… More >>

It’s such a challenging time for investors with so many issues swirling around: rising interest rates, a ground war in Europe, inflation, recession fears, COVID lockdowns in China, Fed policy errors, the list goes on. The S&P 500 is down almost 16% this year. From my… More >>

Last week’s incredible market volatility is likely to repeat in the coming weeks. The Dow Jones had a +900 point up day followed by a down day of over -1000 points. 1 This follows six consecutive weeks of negative market performance. 1 It’s clear that investors are… More >>

The U.S. economy shrank by -1.4% in Q1 and set up the possibility for recession in 2022. Perhaps Fannie Mae was right in their latest economic report (link) in calling for a possible recession this year. 1 The gap in growth was attributed to a massive amount of imports… More >>

Our hope was to see earnings take the day and provide a more positive backdrop to market sentiment. According to FactSet, “for Q1 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 79% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 69%… More >>

Hope is not an investment strategy and humility is at the core of managing money. A transitioning inflationary picture has been our thesis for over 18 months. It’s been a much longer process than anticipated and, along the way, we used humility to adjust portfolios. ✔ … More >>