Blog

Last week’s blog post focused on a strange dichotomy for the U.S. Consumer; their frustrations juxtaposed with their willingness to spend. I spend a tremendous amount of time focused on the U.S. consumer not just from a domestic macroeconomic perspective, but global. The… More >>

One of my key performance indicators for corporate earnings and U.S. GDP growth is the consumer. However, you do the math: without U.S. consumer spending, we would fast approach a growth cliff. Consumption is about 70% of the U.S. economy. Only on the margins can the… More >>

I have been getting a lot of curious reactions to my view that inflation is transitory as I’m sure the Federal Reserve is as well. After all, last week inflation was reported at a 30-year high of 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. [i] Inflation is such a significant… More >>

As we wrote in our September 7 blog post, Soft Patch, job growth came to a screeching halt in August. Last week’s GDP report showed the U.S. economy slow dramatically in Q3. It was going to take some lifting of wages and jobs to get us over the economic hurdles of the last… More >>

Economic soft spots are showing up across the globe in third quarter GDP reports. China reported Q3 GDP growth of 4.9% year-over-year (0.8% annual rate). [i] The European Union experienced similar weakness in Q3 with collective GDP growth of 2.2% on a year-over-year… More >>

Supply chain disruptions have remained near record-high levels for the last five months. Those disruptions partially reflect congestion at U.S. ports, to which the media has increasingly called attention. A specific focus has been on the number of vessels anchored outside… More >>

Global supply chain challenges combined with a constrained labor supply have many worrying about stagflation – the combination of economic stagnation and inflation. People are fearing that we’re headed into this type of economy where inflation is rampant yet, the economy… More >>

Third quarter earnings season is upon us and perhaps it is time to take stock of what to expect. There is a lot of noise that makes it hard for investors to separate the “wheat from the chaff.” One thing is certain, earnings season has mattered most during the pandemic.… More >>

We just published our Q4 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. Jobs + Wages = ConsumersWe expect wages and jobs to drive consumer behavior in the fourth quarter. Rising wages, especially in the lower-wage service sector,… More >>

It’s going to be a heavy week of American politics that will certainly have some impact on our equity markets. We previewed some of that volatility last week when U.S. equities sold off dramatically only to rally back. [i] Some of that sell off early in the week was… More >>