Blog

  Second quarter earnings season commences this week and it will be ugly. S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings declines in excess of 44% for Q2 according to FactSet. [i] No sector or industry was safe from the pandemic-driven shutdown of our economy.… More >>

  As we release our Q3 2020 Look Ahead, l wanted to take a moment to provide a little perspective. While I can’t give proper attribution to the following statement—as I don’t know the original author—it is well grounded: “Just imagine you were born in 1900. On your 14th… More >>

If you look at the basic American economic model, you know consumption is almost the entire ball game. [i]   It’s hard to believe that in such a partisan environment our government did something right, but it appears to me the CARES Act might be that one thing. I’m… More >>

  Did we just emerge from the deepest recession since the Great Depression? The definition as to what marks the official end of a recession is a bit murky but, there are two prevailing theories: One is a return to GDP growth after a period of contraction. The other is a… More >>

Part of our work as advisors is to constantly question our assumptions, biases, and beliefs. Beyond the first principals of investing that are clearly grounded in our practice, we form views around macroeconomic outcomes.   Simply stated, our current views are: Economic… More >>

  On Friday, President Trump declared the U.S. economy is on a “rocket ship recovery,” implying the economy will snap right back after posting an impressive recovery in jobs on Friday. Consensus expectations were for the U.S. economy to shed another 7.5 million jobs but,… More >>

  No one knows how the economy will recover and what sectors will make a full or partial comeback but, a lot can be learned from the China experience. Their overall economy has recovered to over 90% of capacity. [i]     When looking at some of the areas still lagging… More >>

As we continue to thaw from the worst economic freeze in the history of our country, it is easy to get caught up in the sheer magnitude of our losses. With close to 40 million jobs lost since February, it is hard to envision any reasonable way back. [i]       When we… More >>

  Fear is a pervasive feeling that consumes our minds these days. It’s no wonder that we are experiencing fear: Unemployment is over 14% [i] Over 23 million people are currently out of work in America [ii] 40 million people are in need of basic food from SNAP (food… More >>

  2020 looks to be a complete bust and investors know it. I’ve had the chance to review over half a dozen conference calls on macroeconomic outlooks and corporate earnings and the story across the globe is the same: 2020 GDP growth will be negative in most countries,… More >>