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The first quarter of 2018 was a wild one.  On twenty-four days of the quarter, the Dow moved over 1 percent in either direction within a single trading session. The same thing happened on only ten days in 2017. What’s more, we saw a 1,175-point decline on February 5—the… More >>

This past week President Trump announced his direct action against China in efforts to tame the trade imbalance between our two countries (China imports minus what we export to China).  That trade imbalance represents approximately $375 billion, which is 1.9 percent of… More >>

The U.S. debt level just blew the doors off any expectations.  Late last week the U.S. Department of the Treasury reported U.S. debt levels that topped $21 trillion. [i] Make no mistake, this is the highest level of debt on record. It also puts the U.S. economy at a… More >>

Last Friday, March 9, 2018, we celebrated a birthday that may have slipped your attention.  While we were watching the stock market thunder ahead 1.74 percent [i], Friday marked the ninth year of this current bull market and the second-longest stock market rally in our… More >>

The headline-grabbing Trump administration outdid itself this week, once again, after announcing steel and aluminum tariffs likely to be enacted next week.  [i] Not surprisingly, the market reacted violently to this announcement. [ii] Furthermore, U.S. equity… More >>

  The recent uptick in volatility within the equity markets, in my opinion, is due to investors quickly discounting rising inflation.  As we alluded to in last week’s post (here), the risk parity guys have done their share to contribute as well.  Inflation has never… More >>

Reading tea leaves and making precise forecasts are not things I would do, especially when it comes to predicting equity prices.  Last week’s post (here) made the case that panic was not an investment strategy.  I hope you read it— and reread it.  I can’t stress the… More >>

Exchange traded funds had their largest sell-off in eighty weeks, as investors ran for cover. [i] Panic is not an investment strategy.  How do I know this?  Shamefully, I tried it once.  It’s been more than three decades, but the memories and lessons I learned still… More >>

It has been more than 552 days since we had a week when the markets corrected by 5 percent or more [i].  Recently, the S&P 500 finally experienced a slight pullback, and by the end of last week had corrected 3.9 percent. [ii] No surprise here, mainstream media… More >>

U.S. economic performance showed a little bit of a miss once GDP numbers for the fourth quarter were released.  GDP growth came in at 2.6 percent, which was much lower than the 3.4 percent growth forecasted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.   [i] [ii] The good… More >>